Chart of the Day: NY1! Potential +3% counter-trend rally

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At this stage of the market, one should expect global equities to have a correlation of 1x and today’s chart of the day for the NY1! can be viewed in-line with yesterday’s call on the ES1! .

The NY1! should see some support at current levels as it approaches key SSR levels and test the lows of the 4th leg of the 3-Drive formation (if you prefer, Elliot Wave 5-Wave ). If you increase the resolution to the 30M time frame, the basing process is apparent.

At this stage, I am looking for a counter-trend rally to the 21.8k level which be congestion zone made up of a SSR level, moving average, trend line resistance as well as the 61.8% retracement level. Why is it a counter-trend rally:-

#1 It is a trend break and unless price action breaks above the trend-line resistance, one should be looking for a ABCD move down at the minimum.
#2 The Apr’19 peak is a lower high versus the Oct’18 peak which implies the ABCD down move in #1 is actually part of a larger CD leg down.
#3 The $JPY should be viewed as a haven trade to test the lows of 107 over the medium term.
#4 As previously mentioned, Trump has left himself with no possible exit beyond total victory which includes crossing red lines set by the Chinese. While I can’t opine if the Art of the Deal will prevail, I would say the odds of failure is very high. The situation is very similar in the US confrontation with Iran, there is no better alternative from the Trump administration and if Iran is pushed into a corner, the odds of a conflict is very high.

This is my 2cents and should not be viewed as a solicitation to buy or sell or trade any securities. For

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